It’s starting to get queaky bum time in Eran, oil tankers are still in a log-jam situation, with the threat that if they try to pass through the Straits of Hormuz, they will be hit with missiles. DJT is in trouble. How can he prevent this from happening? The short answer is that he can’t. Even if he destroys all the Iranian navy, they have a series of small high-speed boats armed with short-range missiles. Then there is an unlimited supply of drones, which has totally changed the way war is fought. Tanks are virtually obsolete, and even advanced warships would struggle to stay afloat if a thousand drones were launched directly at them.
Now, Donald Trump has asked for help from the countries he previously thought were insignificant, which include the UK and Europe. Now that is quite worrying. He finds it upsetting at the lack of support, but as far as I am aware non of these countries were consulted, and this isn’t the way to get friendly countries on board.
Apparently, a group of American Marines are arriving soon. Is this a prelude to an assault on Kharg Island? If this happens, it may lead to ground operations, but that is very unlikely when this was a total disaster in Afghanistan and Vietnam. It’s possible to decimate Iran by using military options, but its religious ideology is so deeply ingrained that even a regime change may not be the answer.
Then there is the backlash that the Middle East countries are facing, which won’t exactly make America their best friend anymore. And surely DJT can’t walk away and claim a victory when, within a few years, Iran will be building up its arsenal of weapons again.
So what are the options? Well, I do think America is a great country, and I agree with some of DJT’s decisions. It’s a difficult job to do, especially for someone who is older. But if the President wants a complete victory, it may come down to ground forces, perhaps by the Kurds or Israelis. It would be a disaster if the Americans went in. But the best option may be to strangle the revenue they get from oil exports. Cut off the roots, and the tree dies; cut off the tree, and it will grow again.
Wars are a terrible thing for everyone; there are no winners, only losers.
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